{"id":774,"date":"2015-01-16T16:18:01","date_gmt":"2015-01-16T23:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tcfa.us.tempcloudsite.com\/is-the-stock-market-overvalued\/"},"modified":"2015-01-16T16:18:01","modified_gmt":"2015-01-16T23:18:01","slug":"is-the-stock-market-overvalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecashflowacademy.com\/es\/is-the-stock-market-overvalued\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfEst\u00e1 la bolsa sobrevalorada?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hace poco encontr\u00e9 un art\u00edculo que me gustar\u00eda compartir con ustedes. El art\u00edculo es de MarketWatch y se titula \"La bolsa est\u00e1 sobrevalorada se mire por donde se mire\". Este art\u00edculo nos ense\u00f1a una importante lecci\u00f3n sobre el valor.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>La valoraci\u00f3n en el an\u00e1lisis fundamental<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">El primer pilar de los 4 pilares de la inversi\u00f3n es el an\u00e1lisis fundamental. Una de las cosas que miramos en el an\u00e1lisis fundamental es si algo es valioso o no. Otra palabra para esto es \"valoraci\u00f3n\". El autor del art\u00edculo est\u00e1 diciendo que la bolsa est\u00e1 demasiado cara y que la gente le da m\u00e1s valor del que merece.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Podemos identificar el valor del mercado observando la relaci\u00f3n entre el precio y los beneficios (relaci\u00f3n PE). Esencialmente, el ratio PE nos dice cu\u00e1nto est\u00e1 pagando el cliente por sus ganancias. Determinamos el valor observando el precio sobre los beneficios (Valor = Precio\/Beneficios)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Veamos un ejemplo hipot\u00e9tico. GoPro tiene un producto que se vende por $10 y Dell tiene un producto que se vende por $5. Cada empresa gana $1 con sus productos. El ratio PE de GoPro es de 10\/1, mientras que el de Dell es de 5\/1. Dell tiene un mejor valor porque la relaci\u00f3n precio-beneficio es menor. Ganan m\u00e1s dinero con un art\u00edculo de menor precio.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Determinar el valor en el mercado de valores<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 tiene que ver esto con el mercado de valores? Podemos determinar el valor de todo el mercado de valores observando el ratio PE de todas las empresas combinadas. Si nos fijamos en el S&amp;P, identificar\u00edamos el precio de compra de cada acci\u00f3n de las 500 empresas, y luego identificar\u00edamos cu\u00e1nto ganar\u00edan todas esas acciones en total.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">El art\u00edculo examina otras medidas de valor adem\u00e1s del ratio PE. Entre ellas se encuentran el ratio CAPE, la rentabilidad por dividendos, el ratio precio\/libro, el ratio precio\/ventas y el ratio Q.  Cada uno de estos indicadores forma parte del an\u00e1lisis fundamental.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Para identificar el valor del mercado a lo largo del tiempo, eche un vistazo a los m\u00e1ximos del mercado en los \u00faltimos 100 a\u00f1os y determine cada uno de estos indicadores. A menudo, el mercado alcanza un m\u00e1ximo justo antes de que la gente decida que el mercado est\u00e1 demasiado caro y no quiere seguir invirtiendo en \u00e9l, lo que provoca un desplome.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>\u00bfEst\u00e1 el mercado actual sobrevalorado?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Seg\u00fan el art\u00edculo, \"la renta variable est\u00e1 m\u00e1s sobrevalorada hoy de lo que ha estado entre el 69% y el 89% de los m\u00e1ximos del mercado alcista del siglo pasado\". Nuestro mercado est\u00e1 subiendo lo suficiente como para que resulte caro comprar acciones. Ya no se pueden comprar acciones de Apple por $25 la acci\u00f3n. Ya no se puede comprar Chipotle por $10 la acci\u00f3n. Nos estamos acercando a los m\u00e1ximos del mercado de los \u00faltimos 100 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Si observamos el gr\u00e1fico del ratio PE de Shiller, podemos identificar momentos durante el \u00faltimo siglo en los que el ratio PE ha sido m\u00e1s alto que el actual.  Fue ligeramente superior en 2007, cuando comenz\u00f3 el colapso de las hipotecas de alto riesgo. Fue significativamente m\u00e1s alto a principios de la d\u00e9cada de 2000, durante la crisis de las puntocom.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">El ratio PE en los m\u00e1ximos del mercado podr\u00eda indicar que los precios de las acciones rondan entre 5 y 10 veces los beneficios. En la crisis de las puntocom, el precio de las acciones era 200 veces superior a los beneficios. A veces el ratio era infinito porque las empresas ni siquiera hab\u00edan empezado a ganar dinero. Este es un gr\u00e1fico \u00fatil para entender d\u00f3nde se han producido hist\u00f3ricamente los m\u00e1ximos del mercado alcista.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">El aumento del ratio PE del mercado actual no significa necesariamente que vaya a haber un desplome. Hay muy pocas veces a lo largo de la historia en las que la gente haya estado dispuesta a poner tanto dinero en acciones que pagan tan poco, pero no es un indicador absoluto de una ca\u00edda del mercado.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Para leer el art\u00edculo de MarketWatch en su totalidad, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/the-stock-market-is-overvalued-any-way-you-look-at-it-2015-01-13\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">haga clic aqu\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I recently happened upon an article that I\u2019d like to share with you. The article is from MarketWatch titled \u201cThe stock market is overvalued any way you look at it.\u201d This article teaches us an important lesson about value. Valuation in Fundamental Analysis The first pillar of the 4 Pillars of Investing is fundamental analysis. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":7163,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[98,108],"tags":[87],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-format-video","category-what-is-new","tag-stock-market","post_format-post-format-video"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the stock market overvalued? - The Cash Flow Academy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thecashflowacademy.com\/es\/is-the-stock-market-overvalued\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the stock market overvalued? - The Cash Flow Academy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I recently happened upon an article that I\u2019d like to share with you. The article is from MarketWatch titled \u201cThe stock market is overvalued any way you look at it.\u201d This article teaches us an important lesson about value. Valuation in Fundamental Analysis The first pillar of the 4 Pillars of Investing is fundamental analysis. 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