{"id":8292,"date":"2015-04-08T11:31:50","date_gmt":"2015-04-08T17:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tcfa.us.tempcloudsite.com\/is-bad-news-really-good-news\/"},"modified":"2015-04-08T11:31:50","modified_gmt":"2015-04-08T17:31:50","slug":"is-bad-news-really-good-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecashflowacademy.com\/es\/is-bad-news-really-good-news\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfLas malas noticias son realmente buenas?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A veces el mercado enmascara las malas noticias como si fueran buenas. Utilizar los Cuatro Pilares de la Inversi\u00f3n y desarrollar habilidades t\u00e9cnicas para analizar el mercado puede ayudarnos a evitar caer en la trampa.<\/p>\n

La medicina como met\u00e1fora<\/strong>
\nHace un tiempo, me dol\u00eda la espalda. Me hicieron una resonancia magn\u00e9tica y me dijeron que ten\u00eda una hernia discal. Hab\u00eda jugado al baloncesto durante toda mi vida, y finalmente estaba pasando factura a mi cuerpo.<\/p>\n

Antes de que pudieran operarme, me dieron una medicaci\u00f3n para ayudarme a sobrellevar el dolor. La medicaci\u00f3n era un potente narc\u00f3tico, y el dolor disminuy\u00f3 lo suficiente como para que pudiera seguir funcionando. Me sent\u00eda muy bien.<\/p>\n

Pero no arregl\u00f3 el disco malo.<\/p>\n

\u00bfLa medicaci\u00f3n es una mala o una buena noticia?<\/strong>
\n\u00bfRecibir medicaci\u00f3n es un signo de buenas o malas noticias? \u00bfEs una buena noticia que una v\u00edctima de quemaduras acuda a urgencias y reciba morfina?
\nSer tratado con medicamentos es bueno porque ayuda a aliviar el dolor, pero siempre es una mala noticia ser hospitalizado. Estar en una cama de hospital significa que hay un problema, \u00a1aunque ya no sientas el dolor!<\/p>\n

La medicina en el mercado<\/strong>
\nAl igual que en el ejemplo de mi hernia discal, en el mercado vemos casos en los que se utilizan \"medicamentos\" para aliviar el dolor de un mercado afectado por problemas.<\/p>\n

La Reserva Federal utiliza dos tipos de \"medicamentos\" cuando hay problemas en el mercado: la flexibilizaci\u00f3n cuantitativa y el ajuste de los tipos. La principal medicina que se utiliza hoy en la econom\u00eda es el ajuste de los tipos de inter\u00e9s. Los tipos han bajado apenas por encima del 0%.<\/p>\n

El mercado ha llegado a desear la medicina de los bajos tipos de inter\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

La semana pasada se public\u00f3 el informe sobre el empleo no agr\u00edcola. La Oficina de Estad\u00edsticas Laborales pronostic\u00f3 que tendr\u00edamos 246.000 empleos, pero la realidad fue alarmante: s\u00f3lo tuvimos 126.000 empleos.<\/p>\n

Es una noticia terrible porque el empleo es uno de los bar\u00f3metros cr\u00edticos para medir el \u00e9xito de la econom\u00eda. Una econom\u00eda sana aumenta la demanda de m\u00e1s empleados, por lo que se crean m\u00e1s puestos de trabajo en el mercado. Este informe sobre el empleo muestra que el mercado tiene un gran problema.<\/p>\n

Si se dejara al mercado solo con problemas como estos, se hundir\u00eda mucho. El uso de la \"medicaci\u00f3n\" de la Reserva Federal ayuda a que la econom\u00eda se recupere y siga funcionando, incluso cuando tiene grandes problemas de fondo.<\/p>\n

El tratamiento en respuesta a este p\u00e9simo informe sobre el empleo es una renovaci\u00f3n de los tipos de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s bajos durante otros seis o nueve meses. No van a sacarnos de la medicina de los tipos de inter\u00e9s todav\u00eda.<\/p>\n

Adictos a los estupefacientes del mercado<\/strong>
\nNos hemos vuelto como adictos a los tipos de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s bajos. No pagamos mucho por los ahorros y no cuesta mucho pedir dinero prestado. A las empresas les encanta este dinero barato. Al igual que los narc\u00f3ticos, los bajos tipos de inter\u00e9s nos ayudan a sentirnos bien en el mercado, incluso cuando hay grandes problemas. Empezamos a anhelar ese \"subid\u00f3n\".<\/p>\n

Pero, \u00bfy si el informe sobre el empleo hubiera sido una buena noticia? \u00bfY si hubiera habido realmente 246.000 puestos de trabajo, como se predijo? Esto habr\u00eda sido un indicio de un mercado saludable, lo que habr\u00eda hecho que nuestros tipos de inter\u00e9s se dispararan. Probablemente experimentar\u00edamos una decepci\u00f3n porque de repente se nos quitar\u00eda la medicaci\u00f3n de los tipos de inter\u00e9s bajos.<\/p>\n

Descubrir que la Oficina de Estad\u00edsticas Laborales s\u00f3lo ha informado de 126.000 puestos de trabajo es como descubrir que tengo una hernia discal en la espalda. Son malas noticias. Cuando el mercado no produce los puestos de trabajo que necesita para estar sano, es un problema importante.<\/p>\n

Tomar narc\u00f3ticos para tratar una hernia discal s\u00f3lo ayudar\u00e1 a aliviar el dolor durante un corto periodo de tiempo. Del mismo modo, los bajos tipos de inter\u00e9s pueden ayudarnos a sentirnos bien con el mercado moment\u00e1neamente, pero el mercado sigue necesitando ser arreglado.<\/p>\n

Reconocer las malas noticias como tales<\/strong>
\nTenemos que estar atentos a las malas noticias que se presentan como buenas para no creer falsamente que el mercado est\u00e1 sano.<\/p>\n

Es importante utilizar las herramientas adecuadas para abordar esta cuesti\u00f3n. Utilizo los Cuatro Pilares de la Inversi\u00f3n y desarrollo mis habilidades t\u00e9cnicas para analizar el mercado. Incluso cuando el mercado trata de convencerme de que las malas noticias son buenas, puedo identificar correctamente los problemas y saber c\u00f3mo manejar el mercado correctamente.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sometimes the market masks bad news as good news. Using the Four Pillars of Investing and developing technical skills to analyze the market can help us avoid getting caught in the trap. Medicine as a Metaphor A while back, I was having pain in my back. 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