{"id":8495,"date":"2015-08-13T22:38:47","date_gmt":"2015-08-14T04:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tcfa.us.tempcloudsite.com\/a-death-cross-isnt-always-scary\/"},"modified":"2015-08-13T22:38:47","modified_gmt":"2015-08-14T04:38:47","slug":"a-death-cross-isnt-always-scary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecashflowacademy.com\/es\/a-death-cross-isnt-always-scary\/","title":{"rendered":"Una cruz de la muerte no siempre da miedo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11\">Un art\u00edculo publicado recientemente en MarketWatch<\/a> con el t\u00edtulo \"El cruce de la muerte del Dow es un presagio bajista para la bolsa\". \u00bfSignifica esto que es hora de entrar en p\u00e1nico? \u00bfDebo correr hacia las colinas ahora mismo? \u00bfDebo buscar un predicador para que exorcice los demonios que est\u00e1n causando este supuesto presagio del Dow?<\/p>\n<p>Referirse a la cruz de la muerte como un presagio puede ser enga\u00f1oso. El diccionario dice que un presagio es un augurio. Es prof\u00e9tico, es una predicci\u00f3n. Los presagios se consideran una advertencia o una se\u00f1al de peligro.<\/p>\n<p>Eso tiene demasiado de bola de cristal para m\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Veamos qu\u00e9 es realmente una cruz de la muerte y qu\u00e9 podr\u00eda significar para el mercado.<\/p>\n<p>Encontramos los cruces de la muerte observando las medias m\u00f3viles del mercado de valores. Pueden ser \u00fatiles para predecir posibles ca\u00eddas en el mercado, pero definitivamente no son una predicci\u00f3n perfecta de lo que est\u00e1 por venir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bfQu\u00e9 es una media m\u00f3vil?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pensemos en una media m\u00f3vil en t\u00e9rminos de un profesor que califica a sus alumnos. En lugar de tomar la media de todas las notas de sus alumnos, el profesor decide utilizar una media m\u00f3vil para determinar la calificaci\u00f3n global. Si el profesor decide hacer una media m\u00f3vil de 4 notas, significa que tomar\u00e1 la media de las 4 notas m\u00e1s recientes para determinar la nota global.<\/p>\n<p>Por ejemplo, si un alumno ha hecho 6 ex\u00e1menes, el profesor quita las dos primeras notas y toma la media de las 4 \u00faltimas. Supongamos que el alumno tiene 5 sobresalientes seguidos y luego baja a un suspenso. Con la media m\u00f3vil, el profesor s\u00f3lo utilizar\u00e1 3 sobresalientes y un suspenso. La nota media del alumno bajar\u00eda muy r\u00e1pidamente porque el profesor no est\u00e1 teniendo en cuenta todas las notas, s\u00f3lo mira las m\u00e1s recientes.<\/p>\n<p>Las medias m\u00f3viles funcionan de la misma manera en el mercado de valores. Cuando el mercado de valores va bien, podemos decir que recibe una calificaci\u00f3n de A. Puede que funcione bien durante un tiempo, obteniendo una serie de calificaciones A, y luego puede caer repentinamente. La ca\u00edda repentina hace bajar la media m\u00f3vil general.<\/p>\n<p><strong>La oscuridad y el malestar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Cuando se utilizan las medias m\u00f3viles para observar el mercado, es conveniente fijarse en dos l\u00edneas diferentes que miden la media de diferentes incrementos de tiempo. Por lo general, las dos l\u00edneas de medias m\u00f3viles corresponden a los \u00faltimos 200 d\u00edas y a los \u00faltimos 50 d\u00edas. Miramos estas dos medias m\u00f3viles simult\u00e1neamente para eliminar lo que se llama whipsaw. El whipsawing es cuando los precios se mueven por encima y por debajo de la l\u00ednea media.<\/p>\n<p>A veces, las dos l\u00edneas de media m\u00f3vil se cruzan entre s\u00ed. Un cruce de muerte se produce cuando la media m\u00f3vil de 50 d\u00edas cae por debajo de las l\u00edneas de media de 200 d\u00edas.<\/p>\n<p>El autor del art\u00edculo de MarketWatch dice que la reciente cruz de la muerte es un presagio de bajada. Dicen que la cruz de la muerte predice que el mercado est\u00e1 cayendo dram\u00e1ticamente. Esto no es necesariamente el caso. Cuando se ve una cruz de la muerte, no significa que deba cundir el p\u00e1nico y salir del mercado. No es una bola de cristal ni un presagio. El hecho de que tenga una cruz de la muerte en 2014 no significa que todo se vaya a hundir.<\/p>\n<p>Si nos fijamos en el promedio industrial Dow Jones, el 13 de agosto no se observa una cruz de la muerte. Sin embargo, tambi\u00e9n hubo otro cruce de la muerte en 2011 y otro en 2010. Ninguno de esos cruces de la muerte provoc\u00f3 una terrible ca\u00edda del mercado.<\/p>\n<p>Aunque los cruces de la muerte ayudan a captar nuestra atenci\u00f3n, no siempre significan que el mercado vaya a hundirse. Al utilizar las medias m\u00f3viles, es importante comparar varios \u00edndices diferentes. Por ejemplo, si comparamos el Dow Jones y el Russell 2000, veremos que el Russell 2000 tiene cruces de la muerte por todas partes, especialmente recientemente. Pero observaremos que las cruces de la muerte van seguidas de una cruz dorada. El NASDAQ no ha mostrado una cruz de muerte o dorada desde hace mucho tiempo.<\/p>\n<p>Las cruces de la muerte pueden indicar simplemente un giro mayor de lo normal. Hay muchas ocasiones en las que una cruz de oro sigue poco despu\u00e9s de una cruz de la muerte. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11\">El titular de MarketWatch<\/a> es enga\u00f1oso porque podr\u00edamos tener un titular ma\u00f1ana si las l\u00edneas de media m\u00f3vil se cruzan de nuevo diciendo \"\u00a1El cruce dorado es un presagio alcista para la bolsa!\"<\/p>\n<p>La cruz de la muerte no significa necesariamente que el mercado est\u00e9 condenado. Ciertamente, ha habido algunas desagradables en el pasado, por lo que es importante reconocer las cruces de la muerte para que podamos ser alertados para observar el mercado cuidadosamente y tomar decisiones en consecuencia.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An article recently appeared on MarketWatch bearing the title \u201cDow death cross is a bearish omen for the stock market.\u201d Does this mean it\u2019s time to panic? Should I run for the hills right now? Should I get a preacher to exorcise the demons that are causing this supposed Dow omen? Referring to the death [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":8496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[97,98],"tags":[118,87],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-8495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","category-post-format-video","tag-dow-jones","tag-stock-market","post_format-post-format-video"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Death Cross Isn&#039;t Always Scary - The Cash Flow Academy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thecashflowacademy.com\/es\/a-death-cross-isnt-always-scary\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Death Cross Isn&#039;t Always Scary - The Cash Flow Academy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An article recently appeared on MarketWatch bearing the title \u201cDow death cross is a bearish omen for the stock market.\u201d Does this mean it\u2019s time to panic? 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