SUMMARY:

In this episode, Andy Tanner interviews Paul Schwartz, the author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Economic Risk.” They discuss the importance of embracing uncertainty in economics and investing, avoiding dogmatic thinking, and using an eclectic approach to understand the complexities of the financial landscape. Schwartz shares his insights on topics such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States, and the risks posed by financial leverage and interdependence. The conversation also touches on the challenges of quantitative analysis, the pitfalls of the “master model mentality,” and the value of learning from generalized principles rather than seeking a single, definitive solution.